Will Republican Scott Brown claim the Senate seat last occupied by the late Democrat Ted Kennedy? Following all of the polls is not unlike watching a game of ping-pong. It appears that the outcome of the January 19 special election will depend on voter turnout.  If Brown wins, Democrats will lose their 60 vote majority, thereby crippling chances for health care reform this year.  A recent poll from Public Policy Polling actually shows Brown leading the previously assumed favorite Martha Coakly 48%-47%.

One of the only things that all of the polls seem to have in common is that upon analysis they suggest the race would be tighter if turnout were small. That’s what usually happens for elections that don’t take place in November. When was the last time you voted in a special election?  If Democrat Martha Coakley’s supporters muster up their own troops in greater numbers than usually show up for special elections, that could spell trouble for Republican Scott Brown.

Public Policy Polling said that Brown will benefit from Democrats’ declining interest in the special election, along with strong interest from independent voters.  PPP’s latest poll results indicated that Massachusetts residents who’d voted for Obama won’t all be casting votes for the fate of Kennedy’s seat.

Its ironic that the winner of Kennedy’s vacant seat could end up being the vote that stops health care reform.