At The Right Post, we are predicting a victory by Republican Scott Brown over Democrat Martha Coakley. It’s a watershed event in American politics because, if we are right, the democrats will then lose the 60 vote super majority in the Senate that they have been counting on to pass health care reform and the rest of their aggressive domestic agenda to expand government.  Here’s what gives us confidence in this prediction:

1. The polls. Scott Brown’s numbers have been getting better every day since he started 30 points behind. From what we can tell, he officially passed Martha Coakley this weekend and is now enjoying a 5 to 10 point lead going into election day. On Thursday, a Suffolk University poll put Brown ahead by 4 points.  See this InsiderAdvantage/Politico poll conducted Sunday night that shows him leading 52% to 43% – and that is AFTER dems sent in Obama to staunch the losses. The most recent poll by Suffolk University shows him leading 3 key “bellweather” counties by 14 to 17 points.  Here is a table of all recent polls that clearly shows the momentum.  So, according to the polls, Brown is now leading and the gap is widening.
2. Balance of power. Americans prefer a balance of power.  History has shown that the voters don’t like either party holding all the reigns. Mass voters seem to want to restore the balance.
3. Issues.  Mass voters know very well that this election is a referendum on both health care reform, the ambitious expansion of government, higher deficits and higher taxes. They already have the health care reform that Obama wants to foist on the nation and they resoundingly don’t like it. Only 29% of voters approve of the ambitious health care reform that Mass now has. Also, Mass voters are probably asking themselves why they need to pay a second time, just so the rest of the country can share in their misery.
4. The odds market. A look at Intrade gives an insight into people placing real money wagers on a particular outcome. One look at the charts shows odds on Coakely crashing, and Brown soaring.
5. Recent elections.  Voters threw out Jon Corzine (D., N.J) and elected Chris Christie, despite Corzine vastly outspending Christie. Scott Brown reminds us a lot of Chris Christie. Voters also elected Bob McDonnell over Creigh Deeds. Despite these warnings, the Democrats have pressed on further, refusing to allow themselves to think that the voters are sending a message. We think its likely that voters will continue to send this message until the Democrats in Washington start listening. In short, the “throw the bums” out trend will continue.

If we are right, this is a huge change in the political landscape and the implications cannot be overstated. Immediately, the health care bill is in serious jeopardy as is the broader domestic agenda. Many Democrats will have to re-evaluate their positions, because if a Republican can win in the bluest of blue states, what does that mean for Democrats in RED states or even light blue states. Big problems. Big reassessment. Big reset of the domestic agenda. Let us know what you think below and stay tuned.